Wintermute launches OutcomeMarket, US election prediction tokens

Algorithmic cryptocurrency trader and liquidity provider Wintermute is launching the OutcomeMarket US presidential election prediction market with the support of Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle. Its HARRIS and TRUMP tokens are expected to be available on multiple blockchains beginning in the fourth week of September.

Using a permissionless smart contract developed by Wintermute, the prediction market will be accessible on Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum, eliminating the need for users of those chains to bridge their assets to participate.

A flexible and reliable prediction market

The tokens will be tradable on any centralized or decentralized and usable in DeFi applications. The Bebop, WOO and Backpack will be the first crypto exchanges to list HARRIS and TRUMP. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy said:

“There has been significant interest from both centralized and decentralized trading venues to list such prediction market contracts, but no one had developed them in a permissionless manner and without imposing minting or transaction fees.”

The Chaos Labs oracle is a “unique integration of advanced AI and LLMs with risk models” that “delivers highly precise, tamper-proof data feeds while embedding real-time risk assessment directly into the protocol, Chaos Labs CEO Omer Goldberg said. Wintermute is an investor in Chaos Labs.

Related: Prediction markets are the killer blockchain app we’ve been waiting for

Americans may not win even if their candidate does

Prediction markets allow people to place bets on whether a certain statement will prove true, or an event will take place in the future by buying tokens representing the outcome they expect. They are highly susceptible to manipulation; the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has alleged.

The CFTC proposed a rule in August to ban event contracts — prediction market tokens — under pressure from US lawmakers. A CFTC order stopping CFTC-regulated predictions market Kalshi’s betting on the US presidential election outcome was overturned in court. However, the court later granted stays preventing Kalshi from proceeding with elections betting. Market leader Polymarket does not allow US users.

Gaevoy told Bloomberg in reference to OutcomeMarket, “It will be up to the trading venues that will list the market on how they manage the US exposure, but I’m pretty sure most of them, if not all of them, don’t allow US customers already.”

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