Will Trump’s trade war bring an early end to the Bitcoin bull market?

Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $92,000 on Feb. 3 rattled the crypto market, triggering an astounding $2.1 billion in liquidations. Initially, investors seemed to brace for economic hardship from the US President Donald Trump’s tariff war announcement. However, concerns quickly shifted to whether Bitcoin (BTC) had already peaked and was about to enter a downtrend.

Adding to the anxiety, Bitcoin Archive noted that every past BTC bull market had topped within 330 days of breaking the prior cycle’s all-time high. Feb. 4 marks day 328. 

Yet, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after the drop. The pause on Mexico and Canada tariffs announced on Feb. 3, and President Trump’s Crypto Czar David Sacks scheduled speech on Feb. 4 seem to have reassured the market. The Fear & Greed Index, which briefly dipped to 44 (fear), has since surged to 72 (greed), despite China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on Feb. 4. 

This raises the question of whether the market rebounded too quickly. Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges remain, posing the risk that Bitcoin traders could be walking into a bull trap. Onchain data can offer deeper insight.

Bitcoin demand remains strong

As the tariff war scare demonstrated, Bitcoin demand remains strong, consistently absorbing pullbacks—even at historically high levels above $90,000.

Glassnode analysis of Bitcoin’s bull market drawdowns suggests that demand for BTC could rise, possibly triggering the market’s “second euphoric phase.” Historical data shows that in the past three cycles (2011-2015, 2015-2018, and 2018-2022), corrections averaged around 25%, followed by an acceleration in price performance during the final third of the bull run. The current bull market is yet to experience such an acceleration.

On the supply side, a key metric to watch is the Long/Short Term Holder Threshold. It tracks capital rotation from long-term investors to new buyers, providing a clearer view of supply dynamics.

Related: Risk-on assets? Trump tariffs lead to mass Bitcoin, crypto liquidations

Bitcoin cycle peaks often align with long-term holders taking profits and offloading their coins to newcomers. Glassnode data shows that this is not the case yet. While long-term holders have transferred over 1 million BTC to new buyers since Nov. 2024, they still retain a significantly larger share of the supply, signaling confidence in even higher prices ahead.

How high can Bitcoin go in 2025?

Additional data from Glassnode shows the 2022–2025 cycle has closely mirrored the 2015–2018 cycle so far. However, an exact repeat is unlikely. In 2017, Bitcoin’s all-time high multiplied its price by 113x, while the next peak delivered a 20x return. As Bitcoin matures, each cycle’s growth ratio has declined, requiring increasingly larger capital inflows to sustain new price levels.

So far, BTC has risen 6x from its cycle lows of $16,000 in December 2023, suggesting an expected multiplier in the range of 10x to 13x. This would mean a peak between $160,000 and $210,000—a target range that aligns with many analysts’ forecasts. VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, expects Bitcoin to hit $180,000, while Bitwise Asset Management and Bernstein anticipate $200,000. Tom Lee, CNBC contributor and Managing Partner at Fundstrat, predicts a $250,000 Bitcoin price.

When will Bitcoin top?

Technical analyst CryptoCon views Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) as rather precise in determining the cycle’s phases. RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements, helping identify overbought and oversold conditions in an asset.

By analyzing the instances when the RSI approached the 99% threshold, CryptoCon determines the key cycle stages. Their data suggests that Bitcoin entered the fourth cycle phase in November 2024, pointing to a likely market top around September–October 2025.

Another historically accurate indicator for identifying market tops is the Pi Cycle Top. This metric tracks the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMA x 2). In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price has peaked when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x 2.

According to the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Prediction, which extrapolates these moving averages to estimate the next peak, Bitcoin is expected to top out around Sept. 26, 2025.

While no indicator is perfect, the market’s resilience and continued demand suggest that the real top may still be ahead.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.