The perks of the world where 40% of the adult population owned crypto | Opinion

In June, Security.org published findings that raised quite a few eyebrows around the crypto world. Their new data found that 40% of American adults now own crypto, up significantly from last year. Even more, it seemed like a sustainable increase. Crypto ownership among women has spiked, and a huge chunk (21%) of non-owners are more likely to invest after the approved US Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund.

There are some caveats to remember here. This data is based on two relatively small surveys (1,001 and 504 people, respectively) and may misrepresent the entire US population since they were done online. The Federal Reserve listed just seven percent of US adults as crypto investors in 2023, with a much bigger sample size. However, their data, too, might be misrepresentative, given that the respondents were selected from only those who agreed to participate in Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.

Whether or not the Security.org number is realistic, it has got me thinking. What if 40% of the world’s adult population (about 5.75 billion people) owned crypto, not just the US? This idea has been rolling around in my head for a couple of months now. It both baffles and excites me. Here’s what I’ve come up with.

There would be four major categories of change:

●  Individual economics.

●  Financial systems.

●  Technological and social patterns.

●  Environmental policy.

Come along with me for this thought experiment. One that might not be all that far-fetched is the way things are going.

Individual economics

One of the most touted benefits of cryptocurrency is its potential to provide financial services to the unbanked or underbanked.

Take the Philippines for example. Despite 66% of their population being unbanked, crypto usage is rising. Over 13% (or nearly 15.8 million people) own crypto, and the government is rapidly pushing to release a central bank digital currency to keep up with the demand.

Over $33 billion in cash remittance is sent home from overseas Filipino workers, another perfect use case for crypto. Traditional banking systems, often inaccessible or inconvenient for citizens in developing regions, will find a formidable competitor in blockchain-based financial services if adoption continues to increase.

Crypto could serve as a financial equalizer, bridging gaps that have long excluded vast populations from economic participation.

Volatility and risk

Cryptocurrencies are infamous for their volatility, which might pose a significant risk for the underbanked. But if as many as 40% of the world were invested, that volatility would likely decrease. As more people participate in the market, the liquidity of crypto assets would increase, making it harder for any single transaction—even from whales—to dramatically affect prices.

A more widely held and traded asset tends to have smoother price movements, as the effects of large buys or sells are diluted. As the adoption rate increases, we can anticipate that cryptocurrencies might stabilize (to some extent), making their value more predictable over time.

Investment patterns

With nearly half the adult population holding crypto, traditional investment paradigms would shift. A significant portion of personal savings could be directed toward digital assets rather than conventional investments like stocks or mutual funds. Diversification would have a whole new meaning; traditional portfolios would include a mix of equities, bonds, and digital assets.

Financial systems

The massive shift in investment patterns would inevitably disrupt traditional financial markets. With so many people not invested in digital assets, a considerable portion of capital that might have been funneled into traditional stocks and bonds would instead flow into the crypt ecosystem.

This diversion could result in liquidity challenges for conventional markets, increased volatility, and shifts in valuations as investor attention is divided. IPOs would likely be structured differently, with some companies offering ICOs either as a replacement or in support of their public offerings.

Crypto integration

However, not all the effects will be negative. The increased demand for crypto-based investment opportunities would lead to greater integration with existing structures. We’ve already seen the beginning of this with the approval of several Bitcoin ETFs, which provide a regulated, familiar pathway for traditional investors to gain crypto exposure. These financial products would become normal—even mundane—as mainstream adoption rises.

Regulation and policy changes

However, for mainstream adoption to be possible, regulatory adjustments would be necessary. We’ve already seen some notable developments in this area. For instance, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer recently pledged to push crypto regulation through before the end of the year. Legislation ensuring investor protection, curbing market manipulation, and fostering innovation would likely emerge all over the world. Policymakers would be compelled to work with the private sector to develop frameworks that both allow crypto to flourish and ensure it doesn’t undermine overall financial stability.

Digital payment expansion

Some of that legislation would have to address the explosion of digital payment options. Recently, a bipartisan bill was introduced by Senators Tedd Budd (R-NC), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) to remove the capital gains tax on small crypto payments. If successful, this type of legislation would set a precedent, encouraging more countries to follow suit and integrate crypto into their everyday economies. Imagine paying for your morning coffee or splitting a dinner bill without worrying about the tax implications.

Technological and social patterns

As crypto usage increases, blockchain innovation also increases, with new use cases being created every day. From supply chain management to healthcare, distributed ledgers can help increase transparency, security, and traceability.

Digital identification and trust

Governments all over the world are exploring digital identification, though too few are including blockchain technology in their initiatives. If crypto continues to thrive, blockchain-based citizen authentication will be a natural byproduct. Digital IDs on the blockchain can significantly reduce fraud, streamline transactions, and enable secure, authenticated access. Your ID would be universally recognized, securely stored, and irrefutable with the help of identification layers from companies like Concordium.

Social implications

For it to rise to 40% or more, trust must be placed in the technology itself rather than in human institutions. For many, that shift requires a leap of faith. Peer-to-peer transactions could become the norm, reducing reliance on traditional banking. The younger, tech-savvy generation would lead this transition, driving innovation and new business models. But it could also exacerbate digital divides. Those without access to the internet or technological literacy may find themselves further marginalized. Policy and educational programs would need to be created to promote inclusive access to new financial systems.

Environmental policy

One of the most pressing issues surrounding the widespread use of crypto is the environmental impact. Major tokens like Bitcoin (BTC) operate on a proof-of-work model, which requires extensive computational resources and, consequently, a large amount of energy. The Environmental Working Group has been vocal about the need for change through their “Change the Code, not the Climate” campaign, advocating for Bitcoin to move away from PoW to less energy-intensive models like proof-of-stake.

However, the environmental story isn’t just doom and gloom. Crypto and blockchain tech also offer promising avenues for advancing green energy initiatives. Peer-to-peer energy trading, where individuals can buy and sell their renewable energy directly to and from their neighbors, could reduce our reliance on traditional sources.

Final thoughts

There’s still a lot of change to come if we want widespread cryptocurrency adoption. None of it is possible without a thoughtful, well-rounded policy that supports innovative technology.

I’m hopeful that the recent developments in the US and ongoing public pressure in the EU and the UK will force lawmakers to realize that the public wants—and deserves—robust, supportive crypto frameworks instead of endless restrictions.

This article first appeared at crypto.news