Ether rally turns Radiant Capital exploit into $103M windfall for hacker

The trove stolen from decentralized lender Radiant Capital in October 2024 has nearly doubled in value as Ether climbed, blockchain data shows.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Radiant Capital was hacked in mid-October 2024 when the crosschain lending protocol suffered a $58 million cybersecurity breach on BNB Chain and Arbitrum.

Radiant Capital, a crosschain lending protocol on BNB Chain and Arbitrum, lost about $58 million in a mid-October breach. The attacker later swapped proceeds into Ether (ETH) and now holds roughly 21,957 ETH worth about $103 million, according to Lookonchain, up from an estimated $58 million at the time of the exploit.

Ether closed Oct. 15, 2024, above $2,300 and traded above $4,700 at the time of writing.

Related: US spot Ether ETFs see 2nd-biggest inflows on record as ETH nears new high

Not an investment bet, analysts say

The investigations team at blockchain forensics firm AMLBot told Cointelegraph that, although it ultimately led to profits, this trade was likely an uninted consequence of evasion techniques. “It’s more likely that the exploiter’s decision to hold ETH was driven by operational security and liquidity considerations rather than a deliberate market-timing strategy,” the AMLBot team said.

The investigators explained that attackers tend to swap their funds to Bitcoin (BTC) or ETH. The two main reasons for this are to mitigate the risk of token freezes since those assets cannot be frozen, unlike major stablecoins.

Another reason is that Bitcoin and Ether are already supported by highly liquid market infrastructure and widespread support. This makes it easier to move them across ecosystems.

“Given these patterns, it’s more plausible that the ETH holdings simply benefited from broader market growth rather than being the result of a conscious investment bet on price appreciation,“ the investigators concluded.

Ether’s price rises as its supply dwindles

Ether’s rise since the exploit is attributed to multiple factors. Ether spot ETFs started trading in the US in late July 2024 — closing one year of trading last month — and have seen a total net US dollar flow of $12.12 billion so far, according to CoinGlass data.

This data also shows that large-scale accumulation through regulated means has been ongoing, leading to a decrease in the amount of Ether on exchanges. More assets are now out of circulation thanks to staking, with mid-June reports showing that the supply of staked Ether reached an all-time high of over 35 million ETH. More recent data from Dune Analytics shows that this number now exceeds 36 million ETH.

Another factor is the growing ETH treasuries at corporates. According to a report released in late July, those companies already had over $100 billion of Ether in their coffers at the time.

Regulatory tone has also shifted, including the SEC’s June 2024 decision to drop its probe into whether ETH is a security.

Carol Goforth, a professor at the University of Arkansas School of Law, said at the time that the case being dropped was a “pretty good indication that the agency does not believe it can convince a court that ETH is a security.”

Related: Ethereum is the ‘biggest macro trade’ for next 10-15 years: Fundstrat

A growing ecosystem and improving infrastructure

Ethereum also rolled out its Dencun upgrade just months before the hackers filled their coffers. This update includes Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 4844. The EIP introduced danksharding and proto-danksharding, significantly improving network scalability and layer-2 support.

Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem also grew, with daily transactions reaching 12.42 million on Aug. 12, 2024.

That growth has continued, with GrowThePie data from Wednesday showing that Ethereum layer-2 protocols processed nearly 13.88 million transactions that day. Previous highs exceeded 16 million transactions in a day.

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