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The S&P 500 Index is nearing its all-time high, but Bitcoin is struggling to rise above $60,000, pointing to further underperformance in the near term.
Price Analysis
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Bitcoin (BTC) has been range-bound for several months, but that has not shaken the resolve of the long-term holders. Glassnode’s hodl wave chart shows that 74% of Bitcoin has not moved in the past six months or more.
The central question bugging investors is which way will Bitcoin breakout. Aurelie Barthere, the principal research analyst at Nansen onchain analytics platform, told Cointelegraph that the crypto bull market would continue if the Federal Reserve cuts rates while growth holds. However, if growth decelerates sharply, the upside will be limited for risk assets.
In contrast, popular analyst Rekt Capital said in a post on X that Bitcoin could be “just over a month away from breakout” if it follows its historical pattern of starting its parabolic phase roughly 160 days after halving.
Could Bitcoin break above $60,000, or will it slump to $55,724 in the near term? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index continued its V-shaped recovery last week, indicating solid buying by the bulls. The rally above the moving averages suggests that the correction is over.
There is minor resistance at 5,585, where the bears will try to stall the up move. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the moving averages are likely to act as strong support. If the price turns up from the moving averages, it will increase the possibility of a rally to 5,670.
If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to quickly yank the price back below the moving averages. That could open the doors for a fall to 5,265. Such a move could suggest a range-bound action between 5,119 and 5,585 in the near term.
US Dollar Index price analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) tried to start a recovery but turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (103.27) on Aug. 15. This shows that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI near the oversold territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. There is support at 101.90 from where the bulls may try to start a relief rally, but the up move is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a drop to 101 increases.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the price rises and breaks above the 20-day EMA. That could clear the path for a rally to 103.50 and then to the 50-day simple moving average (104.43).
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin has been oscillating between the 50-day SMA ($61,425) and the $55,724 support level for the past few days.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($59,908) and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate a minor advantage to the bears. If bulls want to seize control, they will have to kick the price above the 50-day SMA. If they do that, the BTC/USDT pair is expected to rise to $65,660 and then to $70,000.
Instead, if the price turns down from the current level or the moving averages, the bears will again try to sink and sustain the pair below $55,724. If they succeed, the pair may plunge to $49,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) turned up from the $2,500 support on Aug. 15, but the bulls are having trouble pushing the price above the 20-day EMA ($2,729).
If the price turns down from the current level, the ETH/USDT pair is likely to break below $2,500. The pair may then slump to $2,309, where the bulls will again try to arrest the decline.
Contrarily, if buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the breakdown level of $2,850. This level is again expected to attract sellers, but if the bulls prevail, it will suggest that the downtrend may be over.
Solana price analysis
The long wick on Solana’s (SOL) Aug. 18 candlestick shows that the bears are defending the 20-day EMA ($148).
The bears will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below $136. If they do that, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the crucial support at $116. This is an important level to keep an eye on, as a strong bounce off it will signal that the pair may extend its stay inside the range for some more time.
On the upside, a break above the moving averages could push the price to $164. This level may act as a resistance, but if the buyers overcome it, the pair could reach $185.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has reached the downtrend line, which is an essential short-term resistance to watch out for.
The flattish 20-day EMA ($529) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the selling pressure is reducing. Buyers will try to build upon their position by pushing the price above the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair may attempt a rally to $600.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down sharply from the downtrend line and closes below the 20-day EMA. The bears will then try to sink the pair to the $495 support.
XRP price analysis
After trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.57) for the past few days, XRP (XRP) is trying to resume its up move.
The bullish momentum could pick up if buyers sustain the price above $0.59. That could propel the price to the overhead resistance at $0.64. Sellers are expected to defend this level with all their might because if they fail to do that, the XRP/USDT pair may climb to the next hurdle at $0.74.
The 50-day SMA ($0.54) is the solid support to watch out for on the downside. If this level cracks, the pair may plunge to $0.50.
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Dogecoin price analysis
The bulls are struggling to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.10), indicating that demand dries up at higher levels.
The failure to rise higher may increase the selling pressure by the bears, who will try to sink the price below $0.09. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could decline to the support line near $0.08.
On the contrary, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are in the driver’s seat. The pair may then attempt a rally to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to overcome this barrier to signal a potential trend change.
Toncoin price analysis
The bulls pushed Toncoin (TON) above the 50-day SMA ($6.84) on Aug. 18 but failed to achieve a close above it.
The bears have pulled the price back below the 50-day SMA on Aug. 19, indicating selling at higher levels. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the 20-day EMA ($6.52). If the price turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will signal buying on dips. That will improve the prospects of a rally above the 50-day SMA. The TON/USDT pair may then climb to $7.65.
Conversely, a break and close below $6 will signal that the bulls have given up. That may increase selling and pull the pair to $5.26.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) continues to trade below the 20-day EMA ($0.34), indicating that the bears are fiercely defending the level.
The selling could accelerate if bears sink the price below $0.31. The ADA/USDT pair could then tumble to $0.27 and eventually to the crucial support at $0.24. This level is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.
A break and close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the bulls are on a comeback. The pair may rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.38) and later to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to clear this hurdle to signal the start of a new up move.
This article first appeared at Cointelegraph.com News
