Price analysis 1/13: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, AVAX

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the solid support of $90,000, indicating that the bears are trying to take control. However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin tends to fall in January after the halving year. Bitcoin fell 30% in January 2017 and 25% in January 2021 but then recovered and went on to make a new all-time high later in the respective year. 

It is not only Bitcoin that is taking a beating. The S&P 500 (SPX) has also corrected in the past few days. The strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is putting pressure on risk assets. Additionally, markets are adjusting to the possibility of lower rate cuts in the future than previously anticipated. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 2.7% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in the January meeting.

The short-term uncertainty has not stopped the long-term investors from accumulating more Bitcoin. MicroStrategy founder and chairman Michael Saylor said in a Jan. 13 post on X that the firm bought 2,530 Bitcoin at an average price of $95,972, boosting its stockpile to 450,000 Bitcoin.

Could Bitcoin’s pullback deepen, or will buyers hold the $90,000 support? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) completed a head-and-shoulders pattern on a break and close below the 5,853 support on Jan. 10.

The bulls will try to push the price back above the breakdown level, while the bears will try to defend it. If the price maintains below 5,853, the pair could plummet toward the 5,670 support. Buyers are expected to protect the level with vigor.

On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (5,929) indicates that the breakdown below 5,853 may have been a bear trap. The index could rally toward the 6,050 to 6,100 resistance zone.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US dollar Index bounced off the 20-day EMA (108.40) on Jan. 7, signaling that the sentiment remains positive, and traders are buying on dips.

The bulls pushed the price above 109.53, indicating the resumption of the uptrend. Both moving averages are sloping up, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought zone, suggesting that the bulls are in control. The index could rally to 111.27 and subsequently to 113.14.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to prevent the upside, they will have to yank the price below the breakout level of 108.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin turned down from the 20-day EMA ($95,738) on Jan. 13, suggesting that the bears are selling on rallies. 

The BTC/USDT pair fell below the $90,000 support, but a minor positive is that the bulls are trying to hold on to the level on a closing basis. Buyers will have to push the pair above the 20-day EMA to suggest that the range-bound action may continue for some more time.

Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink and sustain the pair below $90,000. If they manage to do that, the pair could descend to the $85,000 support. Buyers are expected to defend the $85,000 level with all their might because a break and close below it could clear the path for a fall to $73,777.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) plummeted below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern on Jan. 13, signaling that bears are in command.

The ETH/USDT pair could decline to solid support at $2,850, where the buyers are expected to step in. A bounce off $2,850 is likely to face selling at the neckline. If the price turns down from the neckline, it increases the risk of a break below $2,850. The pair may then nosedive to $2,400.

Contrarily, a break and close above the neckline will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips. The upside momentum could pick up on a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($3,383). 

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) broke out of the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on Jan. 11, signaling that the bulls have asserted their supremacy.

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2.35) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers sustain the price above the triangle, the likelihood of a break above $2.60 increases. The XRP/USDT pair could climb to $2.73 and later to $2.91.

Contrary to this assumption, a break and close below the moving averages may trap the aggressive bulls. The pair could then slump to the support line, where the bulls are expected to mount a strong defense.

BNB price analysis

The bulls failed to push BNB (BNB) back above the 20-day EMA ($697) in the past few days, indicating that demand dries up at higher levels.

The bears will try to sink the pair to the uptrend line, which is a critical support to watch out for. If the price skids below the uptrend line, it will signal that the bears are attempting a comeback. The BNB/USDT pair may then plummet to $635.

Instead, if the price turns up from the uptrend line, it will signal that the bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to propel the price above $745. If they succeed, the pair may climb to $794.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) plunged below the uptrend line on Jan. 13, indicating that the bears have maintained the selling pressure.

If the price closes below the uptrend line, the SOL/USDT pair may start its downward journey to $155. The bulls are expected to defend the $155 level, but the relief rally is likely to face selling at the uptrend line. If the price turns down from the uptrend line, it will signal that the bears have flipped the level into support. That increases the risk of a drop to $133.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($196). Buyers will have to drive the pair above $220 to seize control.

Related: Can Bitcoin crash to $69K? Watch these BTC price levels at 2-month lows

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.34), indicating that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand.

There is strong support at $0.30, but if the level gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair could tumble to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.27. Buyers are expected to fiercely guard the $0.27 to $0.23 zone.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $0.30, it will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips. A break and close above the 20-day EMA will signal that the pair may swing between $0.30 and $0.40 for a while.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano’s (ADA) recovery from the uptrend line fizzled out at the 50-day SMA ($1.01) on Jan. 12, indicating that the sentiment remains negative.

Sellers will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the uptrend line. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could plunge to $0.80 and later to $0.76. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $0.76 level.

If the price once again rebounds off the uptrend line and rises above the 50-day SMA, it will signal that the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle for a few more days. The bulls will be back in the driver’s seat on a break and close above the triangle.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) has broken below the immediate support at $34.87 on Jan. 13, indicating that the bears are in command.

There is minor support at $33.60, but it is likely to be broken. The AVAX/USDT pair could then drop to $30.50. This is a crucial support for the bulls to defend because if they fail in their endeavor, the pair may collapse to $22.35.

Attempts to start a relief rally are likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($38.67) and again at the $45 resistance. Buyers will have to push the pair above $45 to indicate that the corrective phase may be over.