Kalshi gives Paul Atkins 93% odds to be Trump’s SEC Chair pick despite mixed reports

News outlets have offered different reports as to whether Paul Atkins, a former member of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under President George W. Bush, could be Donald Trump’s pick to lead the regulator starting in 2025.

Prediction platform Kalshi reported in a Dec. 3 X post that Atkins’ odds surged to 93%, suggesting that Trump could nominate the former SEC commissioner after his scheduled inauguration in January. The odds subsequently dropped to under 90%, but Kalshi still placed Atkins’ chances of leading the regulatory agency far above other candidates, including former acting comptroller of the currency Brian Brooks and former SEC attorney Teresa Goody Guillen.

Politico reported on Nov. 27 that Trump’s team invited Atkins to interview with the president-elect. Following that meeting, news outlets citing unnamed sources have suggested that Trump selected Atkins to be his SEC chair pick, or the former commissioner was reluctant to accept the job.

At the time of publication, Trump had not officially named any pick for SEC chair on Truth Social, his preferred platform for announcing members of his upcoming administration. If chosen by Trump, Atkins would still need to be formally nominated in January and confirmed by the US Senate, where Republicans would have a slim majority. 

Related: How Trump’s victory has divided the crypto community

Even with Kalshi’s odds in his favor, it’s possible Trump could select someone other than Atkins, Brooks, or Guillen to head the SEC. The president-elect completely bypassed people on his short list for US Attorney General when he picked Matt Gaetz in November, though the Florida congressman later withdrew his name from consideration. 

Will Trump pick an SEC chair favorable to the crypto industry?

Replacing SEC Chair Gary Gensler with one of his own picks was one of Trump’s promises to the crypto industry during his presidential campaign. Gensler announced in November that he would step down on Jan. 20, the day of Trump’s scheduled inauguration.

The SEC chair has significant authority to influence policy affecting digital assets, including whether the regulator will bring enforcement cases against firms that allegedly offer unregistered securities. Many in the crypto industry have called on the SEC to provide clear rules of the road, warning that an inconsistent regulatory approach could drive companies out of the country.

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