New Satoshi theory suggests it’s been the ‘2010 megawhale’ all along

Researchers have pitched a new theory about Satoshi Nakamoto — that the Bitcoin creator never went dormant and has been strategically cashing out from early Bitcoin wallets since 2019.

In a Nov. 19 post, Bitcoin research firm BTCparser said that there’s a trove of Bitcoin (BTC) wallet addresses created in 2010, each holding 50 Bitcoin, that never transferred until the first “awakening” in November 2019 — which they have called the “2010 megawhale.”

BTCparser’s theory suggests that Nakamoto owned these wallets and has been slowly selling their stash while deliberately leaving their 2009 wallets alone to avoid drawing attention. 

“It leads me to suspect that the enigmatic 2010 megawhale might actually be Satoshi,” BTCparser said in a Nov. 19 post. 

However, it just remains a “theory, not a conclusion,” BTCparser stressed.

If Satoshi is behind these 2010 wallets, “it paints a picture of a creator who planned meticulously to ensure their privacy,” BTCparser said.

“If Satoshi has access to a treasure trove of 2010-minted coins, there’s no need to touch the original 2009 wallets. Using these later coins avoids drawing attention to the original stash, preserving anonymity and reducing the risk of revealing Satoshi’s identity.”

How the funds were liquidated

The funds were pooled into a single P2SH address, typically used as an escrow, before being sent to multiple bech32 addresses —  an address type offering low transaction fees and effective use of block space.

$5 million worth of Bitcoin from these addresses was sold for the first time in November 2019, with the second and third sales in the $6-8 million and $11-13 million range taking place in March and October 2020.

The fourth sale was the $176 million liquidation that occurred 10 days ago, on Nov. 15, 2024.

“The increasing sales volumes align with Bitcoin’s rising value, suggesting that this whale has been cashing out strategically.”

BTCparser said Coinbase, the crypto exchange where these coins were deposited, likely knows more about the person or entity behind these transactions unless the whale is operating through intermediaries. 

Related: Adam Back: Bitcoin’s value lies in its founder’s anonymity

In October, a controversial HBO documentary claimed Bitcoin cypherpunk Peter Todd invented Bitcoin.

However, he strongly refuted the conclusion HBO arrived at, while most industry pundits said HBO’s evidence was rather weak.

Nick Szabo, Adam Back, and Hal Finney have had their names tied to Satoshi’s identity.

Szabo and Back regularly refute claims they’re Satoshi, as did Finney before he died in 2013.

Magazine: 10 crypto theories that missed as badly as ‘Peter Todd is Satoshi’