Ethereum underperforms Bitcoin, but is the ETH/BTC pair ripe for a turnaround?

Ether (ETH) has been underperforming Bitcoin (BTC) by a considerable margin. The second biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization hit a three-and-a-half-year low against Bitcoin on Sept. 18, last seen in 2021. The big question is whether the low offers a buying opportunity or will Ether continue to underperform.

Bitcoin has been stuck in a sideways price action for several months, but select analysts expect the price to break out of the range and hit a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of this year.

However, analysts do not expect the same from Ether, which is way below its lifetime high. Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, shows 85% odds that Ether will not hit a new all-time high in 2024. 

It is not all gloom and doom for the Ether bulls. Bitwise Asset Management’s chief investment officer (CIO) said in a Sept. 17 blog post that Ether could be a “potential contrarian bet through the end of the year.”

Could Ether make a comeback and outperform Bitcoin? Let’s analyze Ether’s chart against Bitcoin to find out.

ETH/BTC weekly price analysis

The pair’s long-term chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears. The bulls are defending the support line while the bears mounting a strong defense at the resistance line.  

Both moving averages are sloping down, and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the oversold zone, suggesting that the bears are in command. The ETH/BTC pair could drop to the support line, where buyers are expected to step in.

If the price rebounds off the support line and breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle for some more time. The next trending move could begin on a break above or below the triangle. A rally above the triangle gives the pair a pattern target of 0.18 BTC, which is above the current all-time high of 0.15 BTC.

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs raked in $1.1B this week, most since mid-July

ETH/BTC daily price analysis

The pair has been trading inside a descending channel for several months, making a series of lower highs and lower lows.

A minor positive for the bulls is that the RSI has made a positive divergence, and the 20-day exponential moving average (0.04 BTC) has started to flatten out. This suggests that the selling pressure may be reducing.

A break and close above the 50-day simple moving average (0.04 BTC) will signal the start of a move toward the downtrend line. The pair will indicate a trend change on a break and close above the channel.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below 0.038 BTC. That could sink the pair to the channel’s support line.