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With Bitcoin sitting near $70K, is $100K the next stop? How will the U.S. election, ETF approvals, and market sentiment impact its future path?
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Bitcoin is bitcoining
Bitcoin (BTC) has been on an impressive bull run, gaining over 2% in the past week as the “Uptober” effect sweeps through the crypto market.
As of Oct. 21, BTC is trading at $67,100—a level it hasn’t seen since late July, marking a 3-month high. In fact, BTC briefly touched $69,500 before retreating as bears stepped in to curb the rally.
The market sentiment is shifting fast, too. The crypto fear and greed index now sits at 63, signaling “greed,” a sharp contrast to the yearly low of 26 on Sep. 7, when fear dominated the market.
Investors seem optimistic, especially with the U.S. presidential election just around the corner on Nov. 5. Former President Donald Trump, who has proposed crypto-friendly policies, is gaining momentum in election polls.
Many believe his potential win could push Bitcoin to new heights, as his policies are seen as beneficial for the crypto industry.
So, what’s next for BTC? With key economic events on the horizon and a highly charged political arena, where might BTC head in the coming days? Let’s find out.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs gain traction as positive changes roll in
In a big win for the Bitcoin market, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are set to see more action, thanks to a recent rule change by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
On Oct. 18, the SEC approved a new rule allowing the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange to offer options trading for several spot Bitcoin ETFs. This move opens the door to greater liquidity and smoother price movements in the crypto space.
Some big names are affected by this change. The NYSE now has the green light to list options for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB).
Meanwhile, Cboe Global Markets can list options for the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).
These developments come just weeks after the SEC granted Nasdaq approval to list options for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
Options are financial contracts that give investors the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an asset at a set price before a certain date. In this case, the underlying asset is a Bitcoin ETF.
Although no launch dates have been confirmed for these options, experts believe the approval could have a massive impact.
More financial products on major U.S. exchanges mean broader access to crypto, which could attract a wider range of participants—from institutional players to everyday investors.
The timing couldn’t be better. Bitcoin ETFs have seen an impressive surge in inflows recently. According to data from CoinGlass, spot Bitcoin ETFs raked in over $2.13 billion in inflows in the week ending Oct. 18, pushing total assets under management to a solid $52 billion.
Last week’s inflows marked the strongest performance for Bitcoin ETFs in about seven months, signaling that investor confidence in crypto is on the rise.
Is a breakout imminent?
As Bitcoin flirts with the $70K mark, many experts have taken to social media to share their insights on where the market might head next.
Bitcoin is the “Boring Zone”
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has dubbed the current state of Bitcoin as being in the “Boring Zone.” However, this doesn’t signal bad news.
Bitcoin has been consolidating around the $68,000 level, while behind the scenes, altcoins have started to show signs of recovery.
According to van de Poppe, this phase is reminiscent of a coiled spring waiting for a jolt of liquidity. “Altcoins are currently reversing and ending the longest bear market in history,” he explains.
This “Boring Zone” is a crucial period for Bitcoin, where the price hovers in a tight range but builds momentum beneath the surface. Historically, similar phases in Bitcoin’s price action have led to large upward movements, as investors jump back in once they sense the floor has been established.
Bullish momentum signals are flashing
On the technical front, Ali, another prominent crypto analyst, has turned to a specific metric to gauge Bitcoin’s next move.
The market value to realized value momentum indicator, which compares Bitcoin’s current price to the price at which most BTC was last moved, has recently flipped bullish.
When this indicator flashes bullish, it’s often an early sign of more price gains to come. Essentially, people are holding onto their Bitcoin, believing the market is primed for a push higher — an important psychological factor in price movement.
As investors feel confident and hold their Bitcoin, selling pressure reduces. With less selling pressure, upward momentum becomes easier to sustain, pushing Bitcoin higher.
Rising open interest
Another key factor is the rise in Bitcoin CME Futures Open Interest, which recently hit an all-time high of $12 billion, as noted by Maartunn, a crypto futures expert.
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled. An increase in open interest means more traders are placing bets on Bitcoin’s future price movement.
The surge in open interest fits into the broader picture of Bitcoin’s current momentum. Traders are clearly expecting a breakout, likely driven by the macroeconomic events at play.
However, there’s a catch—higher open interest can sometimes lead to increased volatility, especially if a large number of traders are on the same side of the trade, whether bullish or bearish. If the market moves against those positions, it could trigger liquidations, leading to sudden price swings.
U.S. elections and Fed rate cuts
Macroeconomic factors are also at play, with the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 and the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on Nov. 7 potentially influencing Bitcoin’s price movement.
Former President Donald Trump, who leads in several polls, is seen as crypto-friendly. A Trump victory might boost Bitcoin’s price as investors grow more confident in regulatory clarity and support for the industry.
On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins, the market reaction is harder to predict. Harris hasn’t made her stance on crypto clear, which could introduce uncertainty.
Then there’s the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. Currently, there’s a 90.5% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at their Nov. 7 meeting.
A rate cut would inject more liquidity into the economy, often benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. More liquidity means more money flowing into markets, and Bitcoin could directly benefit from this increased capital.
If both a Trump win and a Fed rate cut materialize, the combined effect could create a perfect storm for Bitcoin’s price to surge beyond $70K.
Where could Bitcoin head next?
One crypto analyst believes that Bitcoin’s next target is $98,000. A popular sentiment across the community is that momentum is steadily building, with growing confidence that BTC is ready for its next leg up.
Meanwhile, according to renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital’s analysis, we are currently in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, and the next major stop could be anywhere between $90,000 and $160,000.
As Bitcoin builds strength around the $70K mark, the next logical resistance could be at $90K. But if Bitcoin breaks through $90K with strong momentum, it could quickly accelerate toward $100K and beyond.
This is because once Bitcoin enters price discovery (trading above previous all-time highs), market euphoria tends to drive prices much higher in a relatively short period.
For now, the momentum seems to favor Bitcoin’s rise. However, investors should remain vigilant, watching both the technicals and broader economic indicators to gauge BTC’s next movement. As always, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
This article first appeared at crypto.news
