Bitcoin technical indicator predicts BTC price cycle top in summer 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3% in the past 24 hours and 8% over the last week. However, market analysts say this drawdown is not uncommon for BTC in January. Thus, the bull market could resume, with Bitcoin price potentially peaking in mid-July 2025, based on a key technical indicator.

Bitcoin’s price could peak in the summer

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals that Bitcoin remains stuck in a four-week price consolidation range following its dramatic rise in 2024, culminating in new all-time highs of $108,268 on Dec. 17. 

The price has since dropped 14% from these record levels, but BTC still has more room to run higher, as indicated by the 52-week simple moving average (SMA), according to popular Bitcoin trader and analyst Dave the Wave.

While several studies and data have served various predictions over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has previously adhered to levels outlined by the logarithmic growth curve (LGC), where BTC price topped once the 52-week SMA touched the middle band of the channel. 

Bitcoin price “previously peaked when the one-year moving average hit the midway mark of the LGC channel,” Dave the Wave said in a Jan. 13 post on X. 

“The suggestion of a mid-year #BTC peak here.”

However, the chart above illustrates that the price has historically peaked a few days or months before or after the moving average crosses the LGC’s middle line. For example, in 2013, the price peaked on Dec. 13, the same day the 52-week SMA flashed the BTC’s top signal.

In 2017, BTC peaked on Dec. 17, but the top signal came a month later on Jan. 15, 2018, and during the 2021 bull cycle, where Bitcoin topped at $69,000 on Nov. 10, the 52-week SMA displayed the signal months earlier on May 3. 

Therefore, the Bitcoin top in 2025 might fall within a few days to months just before or after the one-year SMA crosses the LGC’s middle line, which is expected sometime in mid-July.

Dave the Wave pointed out that the less steep one-year moving average signifies “a maturing market.”

Bitcoin price correction in “its final stages”

Meanwhile, popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital said the ongoing consolidation in Bitcoin price is part of the “first price discovery correction,” which occurs between week 6 and week 8 of the parabolic phase. These corrections last between two and four weeks.

“This current retrace has been going on for 4 weeks now,” Rekt Capital explained in his Jan. 11 analysis on X, adding:

“Length-wise, history, therefore, suggests this correction should be in its final stages.”

Fellow analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that the current Bitcoin drawdown is less severe than in the previous consolidation phase, where BTC dropped by more than 26% between July 29 and Aug. 5, 2024. 

Analysts say this relatively mild correction at the beginning of the year is common in post-halving years. 

Related: Bitcoin traders share their ‘PvP’ views on BTC’s recent price weakness

Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt shared a chart showing that BTC had potentially formed a head-shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart with three possible outcomes.

In the first outcome, Brandt argued that BTC might confirm the pattern, complete the trend, and reach the target of the H&S formation, which is below $77,000.

The other two outcomes involve the price completing the pattern but failing to reach the target, resulting in a bear trap or “morph into the larger pattern.”

Additionally, fellow analyst Bitcoin Munger spotted massive bids building up between $85,000 and $92,000 on Binance and wondered whether Bitcoin’s price might drop to fill them or rise to fill the ask orders at $110,000.

“Be prepared for either scenario as I believe $110k is coming either way.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.