Bitcoin price ‘top is not in’ as Wyckoff model hints at $100K retest

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by up to 21.40% over a month after establishing its record high of around $109,300.

Still, some analysts remain optimistic, anticipating a continuation of the bullish trend in 2025.

Wyckoff reaccumulation model hints at $100K retest

The Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern is a technical setup that’s comprised of consolidation and accumulation periods following a strong uptrend.

This pattern typically plays out in nine key phases:

Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), Secondary Test (ST), Spring, Test, Last Point of Support (LPS), and the final phase—Sign of Strength (SOS).

As of Feb. 26, Bitcoin had entered the “Test” phase of its Wyckoff pattern, according to independent market analyst SuperBro.

In this phase, Bitcoin is retesting its Spring phase low, around $85,950, as support, aiming to confirm a bullish continuation toward its new Last Point of Support (LPS) near $96,780.

The Wyckoff reaccumulation framework expects a new uptrend cycle to begin once Bitcoin enters the final stage, the Sign of Strength (SOS). It would require a successful retest of the pattern’s peak near $106,700, including a decisive breakout above the $100,000 threshold.

A similar pattern in August 2024 resulted in a price boom from $53,400 (Spring support) to $74,000 (LPS).

Interestingly, analyst Vijay Boyapati recalled the same period in 2024 wherein Bitcoin consolidated inside the $50,000-70,000 price range for eight months, only to break upward in November, when Donald Trump won the US presidential election.

He anticipates Bitcoin to undergo another long period of consolidation before rising decisively, noting that the “top is not in” yet.

Related: M2 money supply could trigger a ‘parabolic’ Bitcoin rally — Analyst

Is Bitcoin bottoming out already?

Bitcoin weekly charts indicate more price declines in the coming weeks.

Notably, BTC’s previous corrections from local tops have led the price toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave). In the current scenario, the EMA is at around $76,390, down 15% from the current price levels.

Interestingly, the $76,390 level aligns with a multi-year ascending trendline support, which has been capping BTC’s downside attempts since November 2022. Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) at 52.65—a neutral reading—shows more room to drop in the coming weeks.

A decisive close below this support confluence could accelerate the sell-off toward the next downside targets, namely the Fib lines at around $57,690 and $48,170. The latter aligns with the 200-week EMA.

Related: Bitcoin could be headed for $70K ‘goblin town’ on ETF exodus: Hayes

On the other hand, a rebound from Bitcoin’s interim support zone between $85,000 and $90,000—or from the stronger support confluence near $76,390—could pave the way for a move toward $100,000, aligning with the Wyckoff LPS target.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.