Bitcoin price risks ‘critical’ gold breakdown after 20% annual gains

Bitcoin (BTC) copying gold’s all-time highs is a “matter of time” as the precious metal outperforms BTC and the US dollar.

In an X thread on Jan. 28, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said that gold performance in 2025 is “telling us something.”

Bitcoin flags as gold disrupts the norm

Bitcoin may currently be trading in limbo amid a lack of directional catalysts, but one macro asset far from rangebound is gold.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that BTC/USD has gained 10% year-to-date, with XAU/USD up around half of that. In 2024, the latter gained 20%.

The precious metal has ignored volatility shocks such as this week’s DeepSeek AI scare and has also tempered its traditional inverse correlation to US dollar strength, Kobeissi reports.

“Gold prices have risen in a straight-line higher, even as volatility shook the S&P 500. In fact, even as the US Dollar hit a new 52-week high and the 10-year note yield broke 4.80%, gold surged,” it wrote. 

“Historically speaking, gold should be down sharply. The opposite is happening.”

Bitcoin’s relationship to dollar strength, as measured via the US dollar index (DXY), has long been a topic of discussion.

For market participants, however, the outcome for BTC/USD in the face of rampant gold upside is clear.

“All things aside, Gold is about to make a new all-time high. Matter of time before Bitcoin follows,” trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe told X followers on Jan. 29.

BTC price needs key rebound

As Cointelegraph reported, a popular theory suggests that Bitcoin lags gold by several months before ultimately copying its trajectory.

Related: Bitcoin far from ‘extreme’ FOMO at above $100K BTC price — Research

Not everyone, however, believes that this status quo will continue for long.

Analyzing the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, popular X analytics account Northstar warned that a “critical” level was in danger of being violated.

The ratio set new all-time highs of its own in December 2024.

“Bitcoin should breakout versus gold after this consolidation here, BUT if the ratio falls below 34 the bull run may end,” one of several recent posts on the topic read. 

“No need for any narrative or bias. Just observe the evidence as it unfolds. In this case it will be very clear…one way or the other.”

An accompanying chart suggested that, in the best scenario, BTC price strength should gain on gold for “a few more weeks/months.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.