Bitcoin price metric that called 2020 bull run says $69K new bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) has a 95% chance of staying above $69,000 forever, a classic BTC price forecasting tool says.

In a post to X on March 4, network economist Timothy Peterson revealed a new floor level from the “Lowest Price Forward” metric.

Peterson: $69,000 BTC price has 95% chance of holding

Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to geopolitical decisions in 2025, last week hitting its lowest levels since November last year. 

Despite misgivings over the future of the crypto bull run among some market participants, Peterson remains optimistic both on shorter and longer timeframes.

Now, the Lowest Price Forward, which he created in 2019, gives $69,000 as the threshold, which BTC/USD is extremely unlikely to cross again.

“Lowest Price Forward doesn’t tell you where Bitcoin will be. It tells you where Bitcoin won’t be,” he told X followers. 

“There is a 95% chance it won’t fall below $69k.”

Lowest Price Forward has an impressive, albeit short, history. In June 2020, Peterson predicted that Bitcoin would never revisit four-digit prices from August of that year onward — which ultimately proved correct, subject to a delay of barely two weeks.

In January this year, meanwhile, Peterson delivered a $1.5 million BTC price target for the next ten years. At the time, BTC/USD traded at around $92,000.

“The year is 2035. Bitcoin is at – and you can hold me to this – $1.5 million. And somewhere someone is asking ‘Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?’” he wrote.

Bitcoin “cooling off period” may last 3 months

Continuing, Peterson suggested that the recent trip to $78,000 was itself unsustainable.

Related: Bitcoin no longer ‘safe haven’ as $82K BTC price dive leaves gold on top

In late February, he argued that it would be “difficult” to force the market below $80,000, based on the Bitcoin Price to Trend metric.

Further X analysis acknowledged that a rapid return to BTC price upside may take some time.

“Capitulation events like today are always followed by a 2-3 month cooling off period,” a post from Feb. 25, when a long liquidation cascade was already in progress, reads.  

“After that it’s game on again like nothing ever happened.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.