Bitcoin to move 10% ‘either direction’ depending on US election: Trader

The price of Bitcoin could swing at least 10% depending on which United States presidential candidate clinches election victory on Nov. 5, according to a trader, as Bitcoin volatility recently jumped to its highest point in three months.

In a Nov. 4 post, pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades told his 389,000 X followers that Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly close didn’t look “the cleanest” but said this wouldn’t matter too much in the face of a looming election.

Instead, he predicted that there’s a good possibility Bitcoin will see “at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends up winning the election this week.

Bitcoin is currently changing hands for $68,682, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility index notched a new three-month high on Nov. 3, according to data from crypto derivatives exchange Derebit. 

Bitcoin came within spitting distance of notching a new all-time last week, briefly surging to as high as $74,649 on Oct. 29 before selling off sharply on election uncertainty. 

In a Nov. 4 investment note viewed by Cointelegraph, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore wrote that Bitcoin needs to see a “sustained break above resistance” at the $74,000 level to confirm an uptrend that could see the asset rally sharply toward $80,000. 

Sycamore warned that traders should be cautious that a “sustained retreat” below BTC’s support at $65,000 would signal that last week’s rally had failed, and the asset would likely return to its seven-month downward trend channel. 

The broader sentiment surrounding Bitcoin heading into the election is one of optimism — with market pundits noting a bullish trend for risk assets and several positive tailwinds regardless of which candidate comes out on top on Nov. 5. 

Related: Bitcoin can still hit $100K, no matter who wins US election

Crypto-friendly Trump is widely viewed as being more bullish for crypto assets in the short term, with Trump having now made a swathe of promises to protect and foster innovation in the US crypto industry. 

On the other hand, Harris avoided specific mention of cryptocurrency until Sept. 22, when she made a brief comment that her administration would encourage investment in artificial intelligence and digital assets. 

Outside of the election, market participants anticipate the US Federal Reserve should continue on its campaign of interest rate cuts following its 50-basis-point cut on Sept. 18.

Further rate cuts are widely seen as bullish for crypto assets as safer investments like term deposits become less appealing to investors.

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