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Bitcoin crashed nearly 10% below its all-time high of $104,088 to a low of $94,150 on Monday. The flash crash was short-lived, but it dragged down altcoins and meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe, Dogwifhat and Bonk.
The top 10 meme coins ranked by market capitalization noted nearly double-digit losses in the past 24 hours. As altcoin season ends abruptly, it remains to be seen whether meme coins can recover from their recent losses and hit their cycle bottom.
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Bitcoin correction and meme coin price trend
Bitcoin trades nearly 6% below its all-time high on Tuesday. The largest cryptocurrency’s flash crash ended the altcoin season. The blockchain centre altcoin season index reads 65 on a scale from 0 to 100, meaning the alt season has ended.
Technical indicators show mixed signals on where the BTC price is headed; the relative strength index reads 59 and is sloping upwards. However, moving average convergence divergence shows underlying negative momentum in the Bitcoin price trend.
Further correction in Bitcoin does not bode well for meme coins as a decline in the largest cryptocurrency ushers mass liquidation in meme coins and altcoins across derivatives exchanges.
Meme coins have suffered a steep decline in the past 24 hours, and while the tokens have started a recovery in the past hour, there have been double-digit corrections across the top 10 tokens.
The meme category erased nearly 15% in market capitalization in the past 24 hours, down to $128.26 billion.
Meme coins and Santa rally
While meme coins led gains this altcoin season, it remains to be seen whether the “seasonal” gains will push prices higher. Typically, during the Christmas holidays, altcoins tend to rally, this is a result of less activity across crypto exchanges and a relatively lower volume of trades.
Both factors make it easier for the market to move and prices to fluctuate against lower liquidity.
Meme coin price charts show tokens have rallied ahead of Christmas on previous instances, if history repeats meme tokens lead by Dogecoin could recover lost ground and make a comeback before the end of 2024.
DOGE has rallied nearly 350% year-to-date. In the same timeframe, SHIB, PEPE, WIF and BONK gained 160%, 1,860%, 145% and 180% respectively.
Despite the recent pullback in meme coin prices, each of the tokens in the top five has yielded over three-digit gains for hodlers in 2024. This supports a thesis of price recovery and year-end rally for the category.
Trump correlation and bullish drivers
The incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and his Department of Government Efficiency D.O.G.E, led by tech giant Elon Musk and fellow Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy have acted as key drivers of the meme coin rally this cycle.
Elon Musk’s comments and D.O.G.E’s incorporation are top market movers for DOGE, other factors like capital rotation from altcoins and altcoin season drove meme coin prices higher in the past four weeks.
While several meme coins rank among trending tokens every day, DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, WIF and BONK have earned the reputation of blue-chip meme coins. The tokens have a market capitalization of between $1.21 billion and $15.33 billion, per CoinGecko data.
Even as top five cryptocurrencies compete with each other, Solana battles XRP and Ethereum for market share, meme coins play a crucial role in the narrative. A report by 21Shares published earlier this week states meme coins contributed to a majority of the trade volume across Solana-based decentralized exchanges.
Data from the Artemis Terminal shows that as of November 27, meme coins have achieved a 261% year-to-date growth, making them the second-best-performing sector in the crypto space, trailing only Real-world assets.
LBank, a cryptocurrency exchange platform, identified the top 10 meme coins of 2024 that include tokens that are not considered blue-chip but outperformed the sector.
Technical analysis and price targets
Dogecoin is currently trading 22% below its 2024 peak of $0.48434, as seen in the DOGE/USDT weekly price chart. The target for the cycle is the May 2021 peak of $0.73995, and a key resistance on the path is at $0.60000.
RSI shows DOGE is currently overvalued, and typically, this is considered a sell signal. A short-term correction could send the meme coin to the buy zone between $0.29874 and $0.35740.
MACD indicates an underlying positive momentum in the DOGE price trend.
Shiba Inu declined nearly 23% from its December 2 top of $0.00003343. The momentum indicator MACD shows an underlying positive momentum in the SHIB price trend.
The target for the cycle is a March 2024 peak of $0.00004567, nearly 40% above the current price. The buy zone for Shiba Inu is between $0.00001983 and $0.00002259.
PEPE is currently within the buy zone, marked by the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the rally from the November 4 low of $0.00000771 and the December 9 peak of $0.00002836.
The target for the cycle is 141.4% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.00003691.
WIF’s target for the cycle is the all-time high of $4.860, the resistance is the April 2024 peak of $4.343. The buy zone for sidelined trades is between key support levels at $2.438 and $2.649.
MACD supports a thesis of further gains in WIF price this cycle, traders need to keep their eyes peeled for trend reversal as RSI is sloping downward.
BONK is currently within its buy zone between $0.00002786 and $0.00003574. BONK’s target is at an all-time high of $0.00006230, and resistance is at $0.00005666. MACD supports a bullish thesis for BONK price.
RSI is sloping downward and reads 54, close to the neutral level. BONK could observe a short-term correction prior to its recovery and rally towards its cycle top.
Strategic consideration
Bitcoin’s steep price decline pushed the meme coin category nearly 15% lower in market capitalization. Meme tokens typically react negatively to corrections in Bitcoin price. Traders need to watch the BTC price trend closely for drops in meme coin prices this cycle.
Altcoin season has ended, and meme coins no longer lead gains among different crypto token categories. Traders need to pick meme coins with strong community, liquidity and relatively high market capitalization to protect against rug pull incidents and unprecedented losses.
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This article first appeared at crypto.news
