Bitcoin daily transfer volume drops 76%, but $160B net capital rise is bullish — Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently down 8% in February and is less than a week away from registering its first negative monthly returns in February 2020. With the average return sitting at around 14%, the likelihood of Bitcoin clocking in to hit a new all-time high (ATH) is relatively low based on current sentiments.

Bitcoin realized cap increases 23% in 3 months

Since breaking above the $92,000 threshold on Nov. 19, 2024, Bitcoin has spent 65 days out of a possible 97 between $92,000 and $100,000. For the majority of 2025, Bitcoin hasn’t made a lot of bullish headway after initially breaking from its previous all-time high of $74,000.

In fact, Bitcoin is up only 1.97% this year. While this consolidation could be considered a step back by a few, Sina G, a Bitcoin proponent and co-founder of 21st Capital, highlighted that Bitcoin’s realized cap has increased by $160 billion.

Bitcoin’s realized cap underlines the economic footprint based on what investors have actually paid for the token and not only its current selling value.

An increase of $160 billion meant an increase of “new net money,” as explained by the researcher. Sina considered this metric a “progress” despite BTC” ‘s current market woes.

However, the lack of price movement inflicted lower network activity. Axel Adler Jr, a Bitcoin researcher, pointed out that BTC daily transfer volume dropped by 76%, alongside a 74% decrease in active wallets over the past seven days.

Yet, Adler’s weekly newsletter also pointed out that investor behavior continues to display resilience, with long-term holders not panic-selling and the coin days destroyed data dropping to a new multi-year low.

Related: $90K bull market support retest? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin to close below $95,000?

Bitcoin registered a flash crash of 11.30% from $102,000 to $91,100 during the first 48 hours in February. However, the crypto asset has managed to close a daily candle above $95,000 for the entirety of the month.

However, $95,000 has been tested thrice over the past week, with the support level getting weaker session by session. As illustrated above, the $95,000 is the last major buffer before Bitcoin drops under $91,000 again, potentially re-visiting the range below $90,000.

With Strategy’s recent 20,356 BTC acquisition news unable to trigger a short-term correction for Bitcoin, the possibility of a deeper correction continues to increase.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have also significantly dried up, with $364 million in outflows recorded on Feb. 20.

Related: Strategy buys 20,356 Bitcoin for almost $2B; holdings approach 500K BTC

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.