Betting markets predict bullish 2025 for crypto

Bettors are wagering 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, according to a Cointelegraph review of data from two popular prediction markets. 

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) to hit record highs in 2025. They also anticipate the United States greenlighting several new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. 

As of Dec. 26, Kalshi prices more than 60% odds of BTC and ETH reaching at least $125,000 and $5,000 in 2025, respectively. Polymarket sets 50% odds of BTC touching $120,000 before the end of March.

To date, Bitcoin’s record high is around $108,300 and Ether’s is around $4,720. 

Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors expect US regulators to greenlight XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs by July 31, with probabilities of around 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. They set the odds of a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF approval by then at around 22%. 

Additionally, Kalshi users see a 59% chance US President-elect Donald Trump will create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve during his presidency. Polymarket assigns only 29% odds of Trump doing so in his first 100 days in office. 

Polymarket and Kalshi rose to prominence in the runup to the US elections in November, with upward of $4 billion in trading volume tied to the US presential race alone. 

Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. They proved to be more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate. 

Conflicting signals

Compared to betting platforms, conventional futures markets anticipate more modest gains for cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2025.

Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the US’s largest futures exchanges, are pricing in March spot prices of roughly $98,000 for BTC and $3,500 for ETH. 

That’s still up meaningfully from BTC’s and ETH’s Dec. 26 spot prices of around $96,000 and $3,350, respectively. Both cryptocurrencies dropped around 4% as of late morning eastern time on Dec. 26. 

Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date. They play a critical role in hedging strategies and are also popular for speculation. 

Related: Why tech giants like Amazon may hesitate to adopt Bitcoin